phase transitions in society

in our universe changes in physical state variables such as pressure or temperature manifest as changes in the organization of matter. if water molecules gain enough energy they break free of the forces that bind them together in one phase (solid or liquid) and the system can change into something with appreciably different characteristics (liquid or gas).

human society can change in ways similar to matter. people are the atoms and molecules and insecurity (about survival or comfort) is the energy that agitates the system. the phase map would be a spectrum spanned by varying degrees of civilization: from war and anarchy to peace and utopia. the civilization we know lies at an equilibrium somewhere between those extremes.

as such, the civilization we know is a system sustained mainly by our sense of security. put less gently, it is an illusion fed by unthreatened resources. history teaches us that under the right conditions phase transitions of society to a more agitated state can happen quite unexpectedly, with complete disregard for the denial of those at the critical point who continue to employ the conventional wisdom of a different phase.

it should be the duty of responsible citizenry to think about the trends in society's state variables (the security of food, energy, shelter, wealth & income, opportunity...) long before we get to the precipice of a painful transition. obvious perhaps but we humans need to be reminded of this since we are subject to the whims of optimistic bias and often avoid critical examination of risk possibilities that may be extreme but are neither implausible nor fantastical.

it would not hurt to emulate a military mind's attitudes to preparedness:

"... prudent net and risk assessment of (1) the myriad waypoints along dangerous trend lines; (2) the sudden or unanticipated arrival at the end of the same trends; and finally, (3) rapid onset of the rarer “Black Swan” are increasingly important...

... Preemptive examination of the most plausible “known unknowns” represents a reasoned down payment on strategic preparedness and an essential defense investment in strategic hedging against an uncertain and dangerous future."

as a tangent note the following excerpt from the same paper linked above. interesting.

"Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security. Deliberate employment of weapons of mass destruction or other catastrophic capabilities, unforeseen economic collapse, loss of functioning political and legal order, purposeful domestic resistance or insurgency, pervasive public health emergencies, and catastrophic natural and human disasters are all paths to disruptive domestic shock.

An American government and defense establishment lulled into complacency by a long-secure domestic order would be forced to rapidly divest some or most external security commitments in order to address rapidly expanding human insecurity at home."